In Q4 of 2022, the national housing market felt like a fast moving train with a clear destination: improved affordability. 7% rates layered on top of high prices inflated by the extraordinary demand of the previous two years had created an untenable, and ultimately unsustainable, situation. It seemed like the only direction for prices was down.
The most reasonable sounding realtor I have ever heard! I am NOT an industry professional like yourself, and you probably have a much better mix of macro and micro knowledge than I do, but I am reviewing the big picture data and making as many boots-on-the-ground observations as I can in my spare time (primarily regarding the epidemic of mortgage fraud). I'd be curious as to what you thought about a recent report on mortgage fraud out of the Philadelphia fed (shameless link to my discussion of it: https://corruptionduck.substack.com/p/what-if-1000s-of-people-were-robbing ), or any of my other random rants on mortgage fraud. I am getting the distinct feeling that we have been here before in many ways.
Grandiose predictions based on national market data 🧙♂️and the occasional self-serving snark by Twitter fancy-pants agents🧝♂️are simply SLAYED ☠️ by real-time, boots-on-the-ground observations and analysis like you have provided here. I can only imagine how grateful your clients are for having you to guide them through this “interesting” time. Great job!
Locally, in Chicago’s norther burbs, housing prices are firm and getting firmer. No inventory and consequently biding wars are back. Previous low mortgage rates are keeping would be sellers on the sidelines. Many of the would be sellers are instead deciding to rent at high rents and keep their homes as an inflation hedge if they can afford it. I don’t think there is any relief in sight until people start losing their jobs. It’s a catch 22 , endless money printing has consequences...
Nothing goes up or down in a straight line, at least over the long haul. Given that the average correction over the past 220 years takes 4 years 6 months, and prices (as a general rule) return to the mean (in real terms) about once every generation, history says there is a long way to go. We shall see.
The most reasonable sounding realtor I have ever heard! I am NOT an industry professional like yourself, and you probably have a much better mix of macro and micro knowledge than I do, but I am reviewing the big picture data and making as many boots-on-the-ground observations as I can in my spare time (primarily regarding the epidemic of mortgage fraud). I'd be curious as to what you thought about a recent report on mortgage fraud out of the Philadelphia fed (shameless link to my discussion of it: https://corruptionduck.substack.com/p/what-if-1000s-of-people-were-robbing ), or any of my other random rants on mortgage fraud. I am getting the distinct feeling that we have been here before in many ways.
Grandiose predictions based on national market data 🧙♂️and the occasional self-serving snark by Twitter fancy-pants agents🧝♂️are simply SLAYED ☠️ by real-time, boots-on-the-ground observations and analysis like you have provided here. I can only imagine how grateful your clients are for having you to guide them through this “interesting” time. Great job!
Nice article - thank you!
Locally, in Chicago’s norther burbs, housing prices are firm and getting firmer. No inventory and consequently biding wars are back. Previous low mortgage rates are keeping would be sellers on the sidelines. Many of the would be sellers are instead deciding to rent at high rents and keep their homes as an inflation hedge if they can afford it. I don’t think there is any relief in sight until people start losing their jobs. It’s a catch 22 , endless money printing has consequences...
That’s really interesting. I like your attitude!
Nothing goes up or down in a straight line, at least over the long haul. Given that the average correction over the past 220 years takes 4 years 6 months, and prices (as a general rule) return to the mean (in real terms) about once every generation, history says there is a long way to go. We shall see.
Hi Kira! Loved your coverage of the Philly market and wondering if you'll be doing any updates soon. Hope all is well!
I still think the 3% to 7% was just as dramatic as the 1980 going to 18% at these prices....its a bit crazy for sure.
Nashville middle TN market seeing the same